An analyst says only a fraction of announced AI data centers will ever get built

Local opposition, permitting delays and the hunt for electricity are slowing the AI data center boom. But according to a guest on TechCrunch's Equity podcast, there's a more basic problem: many of the announced projects were never going to happen. The episode is on TechCrunch.

Hosts Rebecca Bellan and Tim De Chant talked with Ascend Analytics' Brent Nelson, who runs markets and strategy there, about telling realistic projects from speculative ones, which matters with billions of dollars in AI infrastructure on the line.

What Nelson argues

According to TechCrunch's summary of the episode:

• The pipeline is inflated. He thinks only a fraction of proposed data centers will be built.
• Tenants matter. If the AI bubble pops, developers who signed up the wrong tenants may be the ones hurt worst.
• Permitting is stuck. Energy projects get caught in a permitting loop that administrations of both parties helped create. His advice to Democrats: go for permitting reform now instead of hoping for friendlier politics later.
• Gas isn't a sure thing. Natural gas may not be the reliable backup developers expect, especially in extreme winter weather.
• A less obvious option: batteries plus a grid hookup the utility is allowed to throttle for a while at times of peak demand.

Scoreboard update: Humans +1. Permits, power and local opposition still decide which AI data centers get built.

Stay undead.